1. Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications by Clifford S. Asness (AQR Capital Management) and Aaron Brown (LLC New York University (NYU) – Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences)
2. What Caused the 2016 Chicago Homicide Spike? An Empirical Examination of the ‘ACLU Effect’ and the Role of Stop and Frisks in Preventing Gun Violence by Paul G. Cassell (University of Utah – S.J. Quinney College of Law) and Richard Fowles (University of Utah – College of Social & Behavioral Sciences – Department of Economics)
We first became interested in researching this topic when we saw the number of homicides in Chicago dramatically increasing – and increasing in particular in Chicago’s inner city communities. It seemed to us that such a dramatic, year-over-year in homicides (58%) in America’s “Second City” should be due to some specific factor that we could identify using modern statistical tools. We had worked together on criminology projects before, so we decided to see if we could figure out what was the underlying cause of the 2016 Chicago homicide spike.
Our research has already prompted wide discussion in Chicago and elsewhere, which is what we set out to do. Our goal was simply to provide information about how changes in stop-and-frisk policy might be linked to increases in gun violence in Chicago—information that could be used by the affected communities and relevant policymakers to determine how best to proceed. Our research suggests that reductions in police stop and frisks in Chicago – sparked by an agreement between the ACLU and the Chicago Police Department – lead to (approximately) more than 200 deaths and 1100 shootings in 2016 alone. An extraordinary amount of pain and suffering underlies those numbers, so that spurred us to try and make the paper as strong as it could possibly be. We hope that our research can used to reduce gun violence and the tremendous human costs that violence causes. – Paul Cassell and Richard Fowles